Published: 2024-03-20T13:14:23.000Z
Preview: Due March 21 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Marginally narrower despite wider trade deficit
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $198.0bn, or 2.8% of GDP, marginally down from $200.3bn in Q3 when the deficit was 2.9% of GDP. This will be the lowest deficit since Q1 2021 and the smallest deficit as a percentage of GDP since Q1 2020.
Monthly trade data shows a wider goods deficit of $264.4bn and a narrower services surplus of $72.9bn in Q4.
However these deteriorations will be offset by improvement in the still to be released data on primary (investment) income and secondary (unilateral transfers) income. Fed flow of funds data suggests a marginal improvement in the former and a significant improvement in the latter.
