North American Summary and Highlights 9 Sep

North American session

The USD advanced in North America, a steeper than expected 911k downward revision to the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark providing only a very brief interruption of the trend. USD/JPY largely reversed earlier losses, rising to 147.40, up over a big figure from its low. EUR/USD fell to near 1.17 from near 1.1750, with EUR/GBP slightly weaker below .8660 but EUR/CHF slightly firmer near .9340. USD/CAD rose to near 1.3850 from below 1.38 while AUD/USD slipped back below .66.  

European morning session 

USD/JPY fell half a figure to below 146.50 through the European morning, helped by a report quoting BoJ sources as indicating that the October and December meetings were “live”, with the potential for a rate hike. The sources indicated that then US-Japan trade deal and progress towards the inflation target increased the chance of a move. Market still only price in around a 65% chance of a 25bp by year end, from around 50% yesterday, while the probability of an October hike is not seen as around 35%, up from 20% yesterday.  

Otherwise, the USD was mixed, edging a little lower against the AUD and GBP but little changed against the EUR and slightly firmer against the CAD. EUR/NOK dropped 3 figures in early trade to 11.73. Datawise Norwegian PPI fell 3.0% y/y in August, while French industrial production fell 1.1% m/m in July, a slightly smaller decline than expected.