Europe Summary and Highlights 3 November
The EUR fell back in the European morning, dropping 25 pips to 1.1515 after failing a test of the 1.1540 resistance area in late Asia.
European morning session
The EUR fell back in the European morning, dropping 25 pips to 1.1515 after failing a test of the 1.1540 resistance area in late Asia. There was no obvious trigger for the EUR dip, but the 1.1540 level had been the low in October and had broken on Friday, so the technical picture has deteriorated. The EUR was generally lower, but other risky currencies also fell against the USD, albeit mostly slightly less, with GBP/USD down 15 pips to 1.3130 and AUD/USD down 10 pips to 0.6545. USD/JPY was little changed, but the CAD and SEK fell back with the EUR, with USD/CAD rising 30 pips to 1.4040.
The weakest currency on the morning as the CHF, which fell back across the board after weaker than expected Swiss October CPI, which was down 0.3% m/m and up just 0.1% y/y. EUR/CHF rose 20 pips to test 0.93.
Asia session
Over the weekend, we have remarks from Trump that U.S. will block China from getting Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chips. On the geopolitical front, he also says he is not considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles while does not sound upbeat about a soon peace agreement with Russia. USD is trading broadly higher on Monday with risk pretty upbeat. USD/JPY is trading 0.08% higher at 154.12.
The Australia private inflation indicator rises to 3.1% y/y in October, suggesting momentum in CPI did not slow after Q3. Such persistent inflationary pressure will lower market participants' anticipation of another cut from the RBA in 2025. The AUD/USD is trading 0.18% higher at 0.6556, NZD/USD is trading 0.08% higher while USD/CAD is unchanged. Over the weekend, OPEC+ decided to pause output hike in Q1 2026, supporting oil prices. Else, EUR/USD is up 0.01% and GBP/USD is down 0.05%.