Canada January GDP exceeds expectations with a stronger rise seen in February
January Canadian GDP with a 0.1% increase is stronger than the unchanged preliminary estimate made with December’s data. The preliminary estimate for February is for a stronger increase of 0.2%.
If February increases by 0.2% and March is unchanged Q1 would be up by around 1.5% annualized. This is a little below a 1.8% annualized estimate made by the Bank of Canada in January but in March the BoC stated that near term growth would be weaker than anticipated in January. This data is likely to be on the firm side of the BoC’s March expectations.
January’s gain came largely in goods, which incased by 0.2%, with services output unchanged. The goods gain came despite a 1.4% fall in manufacturing, with gains seen in construction, mining and utilities. Services were restrained by slippage in wholesale and transportation/warehousing.
February data is set to see gains in manufacturing, mining and finance/insurance. Yr/yr GDP growth is subdued at 0.6%. A 0.2% rise in February would lift it to 1.0%.
