Canada March Retail Sales - Soft month, subdued quarter, but stronger April expected
Canada’s 0.2% decline in March retail sales was a little weaker than the preliminary unchanged estimate given with February’s report, and the detail looks weaker still, with sales down by 0.6% ex autos and overall sales down by 0.4% in real terms. The preliminary signal for April however is positive, with a rise of 0.7% projected.
In Q1 sales fell by 0.2% but rose by a modest 0.3% in real terms (not annualized). The latter gives only modes support to Q1 GDP, where a pick-up in growth implied by January and February GDP data looks set to be led by government following the end of public sector strikes in Quebec.
March retail sales data is not supportive for March GDP which we expect to be unchanged, though we expect Q1 GDP to rise by 2.0% annualized or 0.5% not annualized.
