Preview: Due December 15 - U.S. December S&P PMIs - Manufacturing and services to both see marginal slippage while remaining near neutral
We expect December's S and P PMIs to show marginal slippage in manufacturing to 49.0 from 49.4 and services to 50.5 from 50.8, leaving both indices trending close to neutral.
The manufacturing index would be seeing a second straight marginal slippage after reaching 50 for the second time this year in September. A reading of 49.0 would remain stronger than the 46.7 ISM manufacturing outcome seen in both October and November but with November's regional manufacturing surveys having been mostly less weak than the ISM's, we do not expect a sharp slide in December's S and P index.
The ISM and S and P services indices are less well correlated than the manufacturing indices, though both have little direction currently. The last four months have shown the S and P services index marginally above neutral in a tight 50.1 to 50.8 range and we expect that to remain the case, December slipping back to mid-range after two straight months of marginal gains.