U.S. Initial Claims rise but signs of labor market slowing still tentative
Initial claims at 231k from 209k in the first week of May are the highest since August 26, and coming after a slower payroll gain for April add to what remain tentative hints of labor market cooling.
We see no obvious special factors behind the latest rise in initial claims. Before seasonal adjustment claims also increased, by 19.7k to 209k. The initial claims 4-week average of 215k is still quite low, with the latest higher figure coming after two straight numbers marginally below recent trend.
Continued claims, which cover the week before initial claims, saw a modest 17k increase to 1.785m though this comes after three straight declines and the 4-week average of 1.781m is the lowest since January 20. The labor market still looks tight, with signs of a loss of momentum still tentative.
