Europe Summary and Highlights 15 July

European morning session

A quiet European morning session saw EUR/USD little changed around 1.1680/85 and USD/JPY at 147.65/70. GBP managed a modest gain, with EUR/GBP dropping around 10 pips to 0.8685, retreating from a test of 0.87. AUD/USD was also firmer, gaining 15 pips to 0.6565. Scandis were softer with EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK both gaining 3 figures, while EUR/CHF dipped marginally below 0.93, hitting its lowest since May. USD/CAD was not much changed.

The only data was the German ZEW survey, which showed another rise in the expectations index to its highest level since 2022, although the survey will have been done before the latest tariff news. The current conditions index also recovered strongly to its best for 2 years. But there was no reaction in the currency. Eurozone industrial production data was also stronger than expected, rising 1.7% m/m in May.

Asia session

We have a slate of Chinese data on Tuesday where we see Q2 GDP beats estimate but remain below Q1. Retail sales are disappointing with industrial production stays supported. Chinese equites are undermined while regional equities are in the green. U.S. major equity indexes, especially NASDAQ, have been driven higher on news that NVidia will be allowed to sell a certain type of chip to China. AUD/USD is trading unchanged at 0.6545, NZD/USD is trading 0.06% higher at 0.5976 while USD/CAD slips 0.05%.

USD/JPY is fast approaching June 23 high at 148.02. USD has been recovering steadily in July when JPY lacks support from any BoJ commitment and the potential shake up of Japanese government after the weekend election. USD/JPY is trading 0.02% lower at 147.66 after touching a session high of 147.89. Else, EUR/USD is up 0.12% and GBP/USD is up 0.06%.