Continuum Economics
  • Search
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
  • Calendar
  • Forecasts
  • Events
  • Data
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
  • Directory
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
    • All
    • Thematic
    • Tactical
    • Asia
    • EMEA
    • Americas
    • Newsletters
    • Freemium
    • Editor's Choice
    • Most Viewed
    • Most Shared
    • Most Liked
  • Calendar
    • Interactive
      • China
      • United States
      • Eurozone
      • United Kingdom
    • Month Ahead
    • Reviews
    • Previews
  • Forecasts
    • Forecasts
    • Key Views
  • Events
    • Media
    • Conference Calls
  • Data
    • Country Insights
    • Shadow Credit Ratings
    • Full CI Data Download
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
    • FX
    • Fixed Income
    • Macro Strategy
    • Credit Markets
    • Equities
    • Commodities
    • Precious Metals
    • Renewables
  • Directory
  • My Account
  • Notifications Setup
  • Account Details
  • Recent Devices
  • Distribution Lists
  • Shared Free Trials
  • Saved Articles
  • Shared Alerts
  • My Posts
Published: 2023-12-14T13:57:28.000Z

U.S. November Retail Sales, Initial Claims - Economy Still Resilient

byDave Sloan

Senior Economist , North America
-

The latest US data casts some doubt on whether the economy is slowing in Q4 as stated by the FOMC in yesterday’s statement, with a sharp fall in initial claims to 202k from 221k and a November retail sales report that exceeds expectations, up 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex autos and a healthy 0.6% ex autos and gasoline.


Auto sales saw a modest 0.5% increase after a 1.1% fall, contrasting signals from the auto industry that sales had seen a second straight dip. Gasoline sales fell by 2.9% on lower prices. Back month revisions were marginally negative, October and September both revised down by 0.1%, to -0.2% and +0.8% respectively.

Ex-auto and gasoline data has over the last seven months alternated between healthy gains, May and July at 0.8%, September at 0.7% and now November at 0.6%, and subdued months, with June and August at 0.2% and October at 0.1%. October and November’s combined gain of 0.7% was less than the three preceding pairs, but not by much, and if there is a slowing in trend it is marginal.

November details show the stand out on the upside being a 1.6% rise in eating and drinking places, the strong post-pandemic momentum still persisting. Elsewhere details were mixed.

Initial claims at 202k from 221k are the lowest since October 14 and an upturn in the 4-week average seen into early November appears to be peaking, hinting at resilience in December non-farm payrolls, which will be surveyed next week.

Continued claims, which cover the week before initial claims, rose by 20k to 1.876m, a modest rise rising after a 69k decline in the preceding week. The last four weeks have seen continued claims alternate direction, that following eight straight increases. The 4-week average is still rising, but the pace is slowing. 
 

 

Continue to read the article for free
Login

or

or

Topics
FX & Money Markets Now! (North America)
FX & Money Markets Now! (Europe)
FX & Money Markets Now! (Asia)
UNITED STATES

GENERAL

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Our Team
  • Careers

LEGAL

  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Compliance
  • GDPR

GET IN TOUCH

  • Contact Us
Continuum Economics
The Technical Analyst Awards Winner 2021
The Technical Analyst Awards Finalist 2020
image