Published: 2024-01-03T20:29:11.000Z
Psychology for major markets 4 Jan

Senior FX Strategist
-
USD, GBP and CHF outperforming.
EUR/USD – EUR/USD falling back as US yields rise, helped by softer equities. German CPI data likely to determine direction Thursday.
USD/JPY – Rising US yields at the start of the year boosting USD/JPY, but gains starting to look a little excessive.
GBP/USD – GBP outperforming as UK yields rise strongly at the beginning of the year, but yield rises may be a little overdone unless data starts to show strength.
AUD/USD – Backing away from the 2023 highs near 0.69 as the USD makes a general recovery, but still well supported as long as risk sentiment holds up.
USD/CHF – CHF showing remarkable strength early in the year, in spite of the SNB’s more dovish tone and the end of their FX reserve selling. But gains look overdone.
Equities - Cautious start to year as Fed easing speculation is reconsidered, though sharp declines look unlikely without major surprises from key data.