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October 15, 2024
U.S. Tensions for China: Protected by BRICS and BRI?
October 15, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
BRICS can provide a political buffer but not economic, as BRICS are still searching for practical areas for cooperation. However, Donald Trump universal tariffs threats could focus BRICS on more intra EM trade. BRI has already helped to redirect China exports to EM countries, despite the slowdown
September 30, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah Scenarios
September 30, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
The most likely scenarios between Israel and Hezbollah are Israel/Hezbollah intermittent attacks/counterattacks (40%) or significant ground invasion Southern Lebanon (45%). Both would be difficult in human terms and raise geopolitical tensions, but are unlikely to cause a lasting impact on global
August 26, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah War Risks
August 26, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
The probability of an Israel/Hezbollah war in the next 12 months has move up from low to modest probability, but would be a high impact event geopolitically and for global markets. For global markets, a distinction would be drawn between an Israel/Hezbollah war that did not involve Iran/U.S. and o
July 09, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah: Tensions or War?
July 9, 2024 2:28 PM UTC
Tensions are growing between Israel and Hezbollah, though the odds of a war in the next 6 months remain modest. Military strategists note that such a war would require a large scale ground offensive and this is difficult given the war in Gaza.