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Published: 2024-03-28T11:26:42.000Z

Europe Summary and Highlights 28 Mar

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

The USD was generally stronger through the European morning, with the AUD and EUR showing the clearest weakness. 

European morning session

AUD/USD lost nearly 40 pips to 0.6490, while EUR/USD fell around 30 pips to 1.0790. USD gains elsewhere were more modest, with JPY, GBP, and CHF only marginally weaker, while USD/CAD gained around 15 pips to 1.3595.

Newswise there was some weak German retail sales data early in the session, recording the fourth consecutive decline of 1.9% m/m in February, well below expectations. However, German unemployment rose slightly less than expected at 4k on the month in February, while Eurozone money data was much as expected.

UK Q4 GDP data was unrevised at -0.3% q/q confirming the h2 recession, but EUR/GBP fell back 20 pips to 0.8550.

Asia Session

On Thursday Asia session, the FX market seems to be ready to observe the Easter holiday and was trading in confined ranges. We are hearing more jawboning from Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi saying he won't rule out any option against excessive FX moves. As we are hearing more and more jawboning from multiple officials, the likelihood of an actual intervention rises if USD/JPY remains stubbornly high. We also have the summary of opinion, which gives us no surprises but confirm BoJ is in no rush to further tightens. USD/JPY is trading 0.02% higher at 151.36.

While regional sentiment in Hong Kong and China is positive, U.S. and Japan equity indexes are in the red. U.S. Treasury yields are also higher across the curve. The March New Zealand consumer confidence has plunged to 86.4 from prior 94.5, which further drags sentiment in the Kiwi of more recession fear. NZD/USD slipped 0.21% to 0.5991, AUD/USD down 0.08% to 0.6529 while USD/CAD rose 0.07%. Else, EUR/USD is 0.05% and GBP/USD is down 0.07%.

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Topics
FX Highlights
Foreign Exchange
European Midday

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