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Published: 2024-01-09T14:02:40.000Z

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 Jan

byCephas Kin Long Yung

FX Analyst
-

The USD edged slightly higher through the European morning.

 

European Session

The USD edged slightly higher through the European morning, with only USD/JPY little changed. EUR/USD fell around 20 pips to 1.0930, and most other currencies saw a similar dip against the USD. USD/JPY was little changed around 144.
German industrial production data early in the session was weak, showing a 0.7% decline m/m, but had no initial impact on the EUR.  Indeed, EUR yields were generally higher on the morning, and equities were softer in line with the rise in yields, which may have provided the impetus for the USD gains. The Eurozone unemployment rate was lower than expected, down to 6.4%. 
Swiss FX reserves rose in December for the first time since May, in line with the SNB’s declared policy to halt their reserve selling, and this helped EUR/CHF move back above 0.93, though gains were modest. 
The US NFIB survey came in slightly stronger than expected, in its first rise for 5 months, but remained at historically low levels. Inflation was the top problem for small business owners, and the share of owners reporting inflation as their main concern rose to a seasonally adjusted 23%.

Asia Session

The headline Tokyo y/y CPI has continue to moderate from 2.6% in November to 2.4% in December, ex fresh food lowered to 2.1% from 2.3% while ex fresh food and energy barely slipped 0.1% to 3.5%. While all these metrics are above BoJ's 2% target, it is getting closer and closer in the headline and ex fresh food with ex fresh food and energy stubbornly high. Thus, it will not derail BoJ's plan to wait till spring wage negotiation before the next step in policy as wage growth remain the number 1 factor in sustainable inflation growth in BoJ's eyes. USD/JPY is 0.26% lower at 143.84 after reaching a session low of 143.43 with U.S. Treasury Yields outperforming JGB yields.

The Australian Retail Sales came in much stronger than expected in November and seems to suggest domestic demand stays strong for Australia despite household saving closer to zero percent. Seasonal adjustment for new Black Friday Sales may have played around the numbers but the volume of 36.5bn AUD says the retail sales report is a good one. AUD/USD initially spiked to session high of 0.6734 before trading 0.18% lower now at 0.6707 as regional equities erased the early rebound, NZD/USD is also 0.14% lower at 0.6241 while USD/CAD is 0.12% higher as oil continues to dip. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is up 0.02% and GBP/USD is down 0.04%.

 

 

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