April 27, 2023 1:06 PM UTC

The biggest LatAm economies have been showing different path in terms of their trade balance, especially their exports. We take a look at the main trends for the three biggest LatAm countries: Mexico, Argentina and Brazil.

China’s 25bps RRR cut

March 17, 2023 9:58 AM UTC

 Bottom Line: The 25bps RRR cut from the PBOC is designed to support the economic recovery, alongside the expansion of fiscal policy in H1. The bounce in the Yuan and low CPI inflation could allow a cut in the 1 and 5 yr LPR rates, if the economy falters. However, a cut is unlikely at the March 20

China’s Local Government Debt: Problem or Crisis?

March 10, 2023 8:01 AM UTC

Bottom Line: From a wider macro standpoint, it does seem as though the authorities want to navigate the LGFV problems in a balanced manner by avoiding defaults but also seeking to reduce the problem. Even so, multi-year it remains a concern that China is dependent on loans and debt to sustain growth

China 5% growth target for 2023 and 2024/25?

March 6, 2023 10:50 AM UTC

Bottom Line: China’s 2023 growth target of around 5% is likely due to political reasons. An understanding that growth will likely slow in 2024 and especially 2025, which means that a 5% plus target would become an around 5% target in 2024 and 2025. Better to have an around 5% target for all three

China PMI Rebound and More State Intervention

March 1, 2023 8:11 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The February manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI were better than expected, as China’s economy reopened from the lifting of the zero COVID policy. We maintain a forecast of 5.8% for 2023 GDP growth. Additionally, president Xi has signalled more political intervention in the econom

Emerging Asia Faces Crosswinds

February 27, 2023 9:31 AM UTC

Global trade growth is forecast to slowdown in 2023, in line with a recession in the EU and slowdown in the U.S. This is likely to hurt emerging markets in Asia, particularly commodity driven markets but also countries like India, which are dependent on services exports. The WTO projects global trad

U.S./China Geopolitical Tensions, but Ukraine the Real Focus

February 15, 2023 1:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Neither President Biden or Xi are interested in significantly escalating tensions between the U.S./China, but some further posturing and U.S. sanctions could be seen in the coming weeks. On Taiwan, we still maintain the view that a China invasion remains low risk in the next five years,

China Tax Take Restrains Fiscal Policy

February 14, 2023 7:38 AM UTC

Bottom Line: China has used up fiscal policy space over the last few years with the zero COVID policy, though the strong influence of the authorities on public debt markets still means that scope exists. If a further major shock is seen then fiscal policy stimulation will be used, but otherwise mome

China Inflation under Control

February 10, 2023 1:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: January China CPI rose to 2.1% Yr/Yr and remains consistent with easy PBOC policy. Reopening is unlikely to produce major inflation pressures, as excess savings are less than in DM economies when they reopened and global supply chain problems have eased. We see 2.1% CPI inflation for

China: Growth Forecast Revised Upwards

February 8, 2023 7:24 AM UTC

View change: We now forecast 5.8% GDP growth in 2023 versus our December outlook forecast of 4.7% helped by a quicker than expected exit from Zero COVID policies/quick adaption of China’s population and government policy being more supportive. We are also revising up 2024 to 5.5% versus 5.1%, both

India FY 2024 Budget Preview: Walking a Tight-rope

January 31, 2023 2:49 PM UTC

The global financial tightening and slowdown has again necessitated a tilt towards measures aimed at sustaining economic growth momentum. With FY2024 being the only full budget ahead of the next parliamentary elections scheduled in May 2024, a populist budget geared towards supporting rural demand i

Webinar: China Equities Outperform India for 2023

January 24, 2023 9:53 AM UTC

The webinar reviews the prospect for China and Indian equities in 2023. 

China Equities Outperform India for 2023

January 19, 2023 7:35 AM UTC

Bottom Line: We now feel that China equities can outperform the U.S. (CSI 300 v S&P500) by 10-15% this year, rather than 5-10% we identified in the December outlook. The reopening is going quickly and with less major disruption than we thought, which can start to benefit real sector data in Q1 and p

China Q4 Better Than Expected, But

January 17, 2023 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: December retail sales was much better than expected, which helped the Q4 GDP outcome. While scepticism exists over the outcome, exiting from the zero COVID strategy could have caused a boost in December. With fears over COVID looking to have already peaked, the more sustained pick-up in

U.S./China Strategic Competition

January 12, 2023 8:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Diplomatic language and events should improve between China and the U.S. through 2023, which would be topped by a potential visit of president Xi to the U.S. in November 2023.U.S./China relations will certainly feel more cooperative in 2023.This should not be interpreted as an end to U.

COVID Mutations, Bird Flu and Other Tail Risks

January 10, 2023 8:04 AM UTC

Bottom Line: A major mutation of COVID from the current Omicron wave in China is a tail risk, which is unlikely to impact market prices. Indeed, with the current wave having less severe consequences than feared it could bring forward the China consumer bounce to late Q1 rather than Q2/Q3. Meanwhile,

China: Softening the Property Squeeze

January 9, 2023 8:28 AM UTC