Middle East and North Africa


July 09, 2024

Israel and Hezbollah: Tensions or War?
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July 9, 2024 2:28 PM UTC

Tensions are growing between Israel and Hezbollah, though the odds of a war in the next 6 months remain modest.  Military strategists note that such a war would require a large scale ground offensive and this is difficult given the war in Gaza.  

January 17, 2024

Saudi Iran Relations Help Cools Major Risk
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January 17, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Saudi Arabia less hostile relationship with Iran is curtailing the risk of a major war in the Middle East.  

December 07, 2023

MENA: Human Resource Potential
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December 7, 2023 3:18 PM UTC

The Human Resource Potential factor measures the extent to which the country's economy is able to make use of its human resources. It assesses levels of education, employment, labor force participation, and labor market rigidity. In our latest update for the third quarter of 2023 (here), the UAE, Ba

April 14, 2023

MENA and The Iran/Saudi Arabia Agreement

April 14, 2023 7:43 AM UTC

Figure 1: Iran and Saudi Arabia GDP forecasts
Source: IMF 
Foreign ministers have already meet in Beijing in early April and Iran’s President Raisi is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s motivation is to promote regional peace, which in turn will help foreign funding to the vision 203

January 11, 2023

MENA: Playing Both Sides
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January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC

 Most Middle East Countries have stayed neutral on the Ukraine war except for Iran and Syria who supported Russia, but could geopolitics evolve and see countries taking sides? 
Figure 1: Proven Gas and Oil Reserves (% of Middle East Total)
Source: BP Statistical Year Book 2021 
Ukraine War
Iran suppl

August 11, 2022

Oil Prices: Recession Headwinds
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August 11, 2022 12:39 PM UTC

Figure 1: WTI Net Non-commercial Future Positions
Source: CFTC
Various Factors Take the Steam Out of Oil
A number of factors are leading to our downward revision of the WTI oil price outlook.
Figure 2: OECD Oil Inventories in Number of Days
Source: U.S. EIA
Nevertheless, we do see oil prices rising in