MENA: Human Resource Potential

December 7, 2023 3:18 PM UTC

The Human Resource Potential factor measures the extent to which the country's economy is able to make use of its human resources. It assesses levels of education, employment, labor force participation, and labor market rigidity. In our latest update for the third quarter of 2023 (here), the UAE, Ba

April 14, 2023 7:43 AM UTC

Figure 1: Iran and Saudi Arabia GDP forecasts
Source: IMF 
Foreign ministers have already meet in Beijing in early April and Iran’s President Raisi is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s motivation is to promote regional peace, which in turn will help foreign funding to the vision 203

MENA: Playing Both Sides

January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC

 Most Middle East Countries have stayed neutral on the Ukraine war except for Iran and Syria who supported Russia, but could geopolitics evolve and see countries taking sides? 
Figure 1: Proven Gas and Oil Reserves (% of Middle East Total)
Source: BP Statistical Year Book 2021 
Ukraine War
Iran suppl

Oil Prices: Recession Headwinds

August 11, 2022 12:39 PM UTC

Figure 1: WTI Net Non-commercial Future Positions
Source: CFTC
Various Factors Take the Steam Out of Oil
A number of factors are leading to our downward revision of the WTI oil price outlook.
Figure 2: OECD Oil Inventories in Number of Days
Source: U.S. EIA
Nevertheless, we do see oil prices rising in

Ukraine War Scenarios: Long war, Exhaustion or Cyberattack

July 22, 2022 12:58 PM UTC

Figure 1: Possible Scenarios
Source: Continuum Economics.(1) Other scenarios would be a remaining 10% including a double cold war with China and Russia versus the west; Putin stepping down or dying or a successful Ukraine counter offensive that reclaims a fair portion of lost territory.
2 Main Scenari

Supply and Labor Problems: Easing or Persisting?

July 15, 2022 1:38 PM UTC

Figure 1: NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Source: NY Fed
Some Easing of Supply Concerns
The COVID pandemic and Ukraine war have caused persistent supply chain and labor market problems, but how are these changing during 2022? A range of data points to an easing of pressures, but others are

July 5, 2022 12:50 PM UTC

Figure 1: Grains Prices (Jun 2005 = 100)
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
Grain Price Relief
Grain prices have fallen in recent weeks (Figure 1), as concerns about a U.S. recession have caused a change in sentiment in commodity markets, with a decline in oil and copper prices also being eviden

Central Bank Response to $160 WTI Cuts Growth

June 29, 2022 9:23 AM UTC

Figure 1: Higher Oil Prices Mean Slower GDP Growth in US, EZ and China Relative to Baseline
Source: Continuum Economics, NiGEM
Baseline
Our baseline view for WTI oil prices for end-2022 is $130 and $110 for end-2023. Our baseline view includes disruption from the ongoing war in Ukraine, which we expect

MENA: Opportunities and Challenges in the Energy Transition

June 22, 2022 10:48 AM UTC

Figure 1: Oil Production and Proven Reserves (% of global total, 2020 data)
Source: BP
Navigating the Energy Transition
MENA countries have been navigating energy market challenges over the past two years, with oil price stabilization in 2020 helped by OPEC+ production cutbacks during the COVID cris

June 3, 2022 8:34 AM UTC

Figure 1: Brent, European Gas (TTF) and Coal (Ara) (31/12/2019 = 100)
Source: Datastream
OPEC+ Help Not Enough with EU Ban
OPEC+ decision to increase production quota in July and August by 648k barrels p/d will likely be followed later in the year by Saudi Arabia voluntary production increase by