Poland
View:
February 24, 2025
Ukraine Peace, U.S. Troop Withdrawals and Trump NATO Threats
February 24, 2025 8:27 AM UTC
· Our baseline remains of a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine, but this need not lead to a weaker European security situation. This is our baseline (Figure 1), but does require Europe to make concessions to the Trump administration on defence spending increases and trade. However,
January 18, 2024
December 18, 2023
EMEA Outlook: Inflationary Pressures Remain Strong
December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC
· The EMEA economies such as Russia and Turkiye will continue with restrictive monetary policy in H1 2024 due to the desire to control inflation. Meanwhile South Africa has likely halted its tightening cycle at 8.25% and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q2 2024 depending on how soon in
November 20, 2023
Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely
November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC
As Ukraine counter offensive operations continues without much success, the possibility of a stalemate and frozen conflict increase in the medium term taking into account Russia's continued failure to gain ground in late 2023. What will happen in 2024?
Bottom Line: We foresee a protracted conflict,