• What will 2026 bring for the U.S. and global economy; and could we see lagged effects from President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff increases? Meanwhile, will Trump’s personnel changes at the Federal Reserve quicken or deepen the pace of Fed easing? Finally, what will happen to fiscal policy in the U.S. after the November 2026 mid-term elections? 

• In Europe, can the ECB or fiscal policy provide extra stimulus against the backdrop of Trump’s tariffs on the EU economy? Also, are structural EZ economic problems being underestimated? Finally, will a peace deal be agreed on Ukraine in 2026 or will the war drag on? • In Asia, the key question remains whether China can sustain moderate growth, given modest consumption trends coupled with a continued drag from residential property investment. Also, will the China/U.S. trade truce turn into a comprehensive trade deal? Finally, what are China military plans for Taiwan, and what are the risks in 2026 and 2027? Elsewhere in EM, the economic and policy outlook depends on the spill over of U.S. trade policies, but also on divergent domestic cyclical and structural conditions. 

• For financial markets, the key question is whether the U.S. economy sees a soft landing in 2026. Also, could the economy or another major catalyst derail the overvalued U.S. equity market? How will other markets and economic/policy outlooks impact the USD in 2026 and 2027?

Continuum Economics’ January 2026 Outlook will assess these key issues. Please join our Outlook Webinar on January 7th.