• President Donald Trump’s tariffs have caused turbulence with larger than expected reciprocal tariffs and then partial U-turns on reciprocal and China tariffs.  What will eventually be the average tariffs that the U.S. faces and what are the consequences for U.S. growth and inflation? Fed policy will be influenced by tariffs, but also the 10yr budget bill and the existing backdrop to the economy.  What will the Fed do in 2025 and 2026?  
• How will Europe be impacted by tariff turbulence, but also by the aim of scaling up defence spending as the U.S. scale down commitments for European security and Ukraine.  Will Ukraine see a peace deal or will the war drag on?  
• In Asia the key question is whether China can sustain moderate growth, given the new trade truce with the U.S. and ongoing trade negotiations.  Elsewhere in EM, the economic and policy outlook depends on the spill over of new U.S. policies, whether the USD declines further but also on divergent domestic conditions. 
• For financial markets the key question is how this impacts policy and market valuations. Investors are also questioning how long US exceptionalism can last and can the overvalued U.S. equity market ignore high bond yields?

Continuum Economics’ June Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2025 and 2026 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on June 26th.