• The global economy is diverging, with the U.S. economy seeing reasonable growth; Europe’s recovery proving slow and China seeing a trend slowdown.  Monetary policy easing is thus starting to differ in pace and magnitude, but not yet direction. Fiscal policy will likely become more stimulative in Europe and China, but the prospects are now only for modest rather than aggressive fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and this reduces the 2026 Fed tightening risks. 
• The global outlook is also going to be shaped by President Trump’s tariff policies, with the next main focus on the announcement of reciprocal and product tariffs in April. Trump believes that tariffs can led to trade concessions/deals but also raise revenue for the U.S. This means that tariff reality will be both trade deals and higher tariffs in certain products and reciprocally.  
• The economic and policy outlook elsewhere around the world depends on the spill over of new U.S. policies but also on divergent domestic conditions. For financial markets the question is how long US exceptionalism can last and can the U.S. equity market ignore high bond yields?   

Continuum Economics’ March Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2025 and 2026 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on March 28th.