• The Iran war has boosted energy prices but what will the cyclical impact be on inflation and the economy. Will DM and EM central banks delaying easing plans and could some react by hiking policy rates? Meanwhile, is new fiscal policy stimulus restricted by the level of government bond yields in DM?

• Beyond the Iran war, 2026 will remain dominated by AI. For the economy this has boosted CAPEX investment, but will it have no or moderate aggregate impact on unemployment in the next 1-2 years. Will the Fed look at better productivity leading to future disinflation and lower policy rates?

• For financial markets, U.S. equities remain overvalued and at risk from a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy. Also will the AI boom return to drive the market higher or could AI expectations by too optimistic and prompt a financial shakeout. In Asia, the key questions remains whether China can sustain moderate growth and will the China/U.S. trade truce turn into a comprehensive trade deal. Finally, how will all of this impact the USD in 2026 and 2027?

Continuum Economics’ March 2026 Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2026 and new 2027 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on March 27th.