• President Donald Trump’s tariffs are feeding through to the U.S. economy, but how much of a slowdown will occur and will the very likely boost to inflation be temporary?  Meanwhile, will Trump’s personnel changes at the Federal Reserve quicken the pace of Fed easing?  
• Europe faces a tariff headwind to growth, but tariffs are disinflationary outside the U.S.  – especially with China looking to redirect exports from the U.S.  Can the ECB or fiscal policy provide extra stimulus against this backdrop?  Finally, will a peace deal be agreed on Ukraine or will the war drag on? 
• In Asia, the key question remains whether China can sustain moderate growth, given the lack of major progress in the ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S.  Will China also ask the U.S. not to intervene on Taiwan if it pushes ahead with the reunification it desires? Elsewhere in EM, the economic and policy outlook depends on the spill over of new U.S. policies, whether the USD declines further but also on divergent domestic conditions. 
• For financial markets the key question is the scale of the U.S. slowdown, with the U.S. equity market overvalued but long-dated government bonds now at reasonable real yield levels.  How will other markets and economic/policy outlooks impact the USD?    

Continuum Economics’ September Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2025 and 2026 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on September 26.