Headline Inflation Slowing, Core Inflation and Policy Rates in Focus
* DM rate hikes are close to peaking, as the effects of monetary tightening bites and headline inflation rates fall with post COVID and supply chain inflation pressures ebbing. However, core inflation needs to slowdown to convince central banks that they are controlling the inflation trajectory enough to get inflation back towards target. What will DM central banks actually do in the remainder of 2023 and into 2024?
* EM countries core inflation rise has been less acute in most cases, as labor market slack has curtailed the 2nd round effects and commodity prices have also fallen from the 2022 peak after the invasion of Ukraine. What are the prospects for growth/inflation and monetary policy across EM countries?
* Equities and fixed income have had a choppy Q2. What is the outlook for equities, government bonds, commodities and FX for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024?
* Continuum Economics’ June Outlook will look at these key issues. Across the 23 countries that we cover, inflation forces and central bank policy are projected to continue to diverge, and our forecasts will help guide you through these differences.
* What will all this mean for our economic, policy and financial market forecasts? To hear our latest 2023 and 2024 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on June 26.
Continuum Economics' June Outlook will look at these key questions.