•    Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4.  This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed.  European easing is underway, but how much further will central banks cut interest rates?  Finally, the BOJ has hiked, but what will the trajectory be over the next 15 months?

•    EM central banks will have greater opportunities to cut as Fed easing softens USD strength, but the timing and scale of easing will likely be influenced by domestic growth and inflation conditions.  One extra uncertainty is the scale of the slowdown in China.  

•    As 2024 progresses, the focus will also switch to the critical U.S. presidential and congressional elections in November. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will shape geopolitics, ongoing wars and U.S. fiscal policy into and beyond 2025.    

Continuum Economics’ September Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2024 and 2025 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on September 27.