Global Outlook (Q3, 2023): Into 2024

• The focus is switching to progress into 2024 and forecasts for next year are now becoming key. Most DM rate hikes are close to peaking but how long will policy rates stay at elevated levels and when will rate cuts arrive? The outlook for core inflation is perhaps the critical issue, though for some DM economies, we see a H2 2023 recession also having a powerful influence on central bank policy.
• EM countries core inflation trajectory varies across countries with some now cutting, some pausing and a number still hiking. The outlook on 2024 depends on the inflation trajectory, which diverge due to country specific reasons and we can guide people through key EM countries forecasts for the economy/inflation policy and markets into 2024.
• Equities and fixed income 2024 views are a function of economic and policy forecasts, but are also dependent on geopolitics in the shape of the ongoing Ukraine war/U.S. and China strategic competition and a U.S. presidential election. What is the outlook for equities, government bonds, commodities and FX for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024?
• Continuum Economics’ September Outlook will look at these key issues. Across the 23 countries that we cover, inflation forces and central bank policy are projected to continue to diverge, and our forecasts will help guide you through these differences.
• What will all this mean for our economic, policy and financial market forecasts? To hear our latest 2023 and 2024 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on October 2.