•    The global growth picture is improving with slow recovery in Europe; reasonable growth in the U.S. and good growth in some major EM countries. European rate cuts will likely be followed by the Fed later in the year, which will help the cyclical growth position.  However, account needs to be taken of structural tailwinds (tech and AI) and headwinds (population ageing/lack of fiscal space). 

•    DM central banks easing into 2025 are also a function of labor market conditions, which vary across leading economies and impact the scale of shift back from restrictive policy towards neutral policy on a multi-year basis.  This is more comfortable in the EZ than the U.S. 

•    As 2024 progresses, the focus will also switch to the critical U.S. presidential and congressional elections in November. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will shape geopolitics, ongoing wars and U.S. fiscal policy into and beyond 2025.   

•    Equities and fixed income views are a function of economic and policy forecasts, but are also dependent on geopolitics in the shape of the ongoing Ukraine war/U.S. and China strategic competition. What is the outlook for equities, government bonds, commodities and FX for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025?

Continuum Economics’ June Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear Cyclical and Structural Forces, please join our Outlook Webinar on June 26.