Having passed 3mn COVID-19 cases, our previous downside scenario of an adverse pandemic of 2-10mn cases has sadly become the central scenario. Implying an uncontrolled, widespread and protracted pandemic.

Some of the key messages from the webinar

• COVID-19 will alter all major drivers of the global economy
• China: At least a month ahead of the rest of the world, with containment measures in-place since mid-January. The shock to GDP growth–in China, but also elsewhere–will likely be significant.
• Widespread and prolonged mitigation efforts will significantly curtail production and consumption.
• Interaction of negative supply and demand shocks and heightened uncertainty will cause a severe slump in global output.
• Significant monetary and fiscal policies are needed to limit the fallout and avoid a longer-term deterioration in productivity.
• Despite aggressive policy easing, global growth will fall by 1.3% in 2020.
• Global flows of trade, labor and capital will come to a standstill, as economic nationalism rises.