Chartbook: Chart AUD/USD: Retest .6348 year low, scope for break
Saw steep losses from .6942 high at the start of Q4 to retraced all of the Q3 gains to retest the .6348 low
Saw break to fresh year high in Q3 to reach the trendline from 2021 year high at .6942. Steep losses from there at the start of Q4 has since retrace all of the Q3 gains to retest the .6348 low.
Bearish structure from the September high see risk for break here to open up further losses to retest the strong support zone at .6270/.6170, the 2023 and 2022 year lows. Would expect reaction at these lows as prices pushed deep into oversold areas on the weekly studies. Failure to hold these support will open up deeper losses to .6100, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020/2021 rally. Lower still, if seen, will see room to the .6000 figure.
Bounce see resistance starting at .6450 and this extend to the .6500/.6550 congestion area. The latter is expected to cap and sustain the bearish trend from the September high. Would take break here to fade the downside pressure and clear the way for stronger bounce to retrace the losses from the September YTD high and open up room to the strong resistance at the .6600/.6650 area.