2024 Q4 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from credit rating agencies.
The ratings are based on our Country Strength Index (CSI), which is our most comprehensive assessment across our full range of Country Insights data. The ratings are consistent with our 2024 Q4 Country Insights update.
Figure 1 provides a comparative analysis of country ratings derived from our proprietary Country Strength Index versus the average ratings assigned by major credit rating agencies for select emerging markets. The central diagonal line represents perfect alignment between the two methodologies, where both models yield identical ratings. Countries positioned close to this line suggest a strong correlation between the Country Strength Index and credit agency assessments.
However, several outliers reveal discrepancies. China receives higher ratings from credit agencies than predicted by the Country Strength Index. Specifically, our index highlights weaknesses in China’s (CHN) institutional robustness, particularly in its fiscal policy and total indebtedness sub-factors. Conversely, Indonesia (IDN) is rated lower by credit agencies than the Country Strength Index suggests. The Southeast Asian country benefits from above-average scores across all pillars, particularly in the external adjustment capacity pillar, where sub-factors such as external indebtedness and reserve buffers contribute positively.
Figure 1: Shadow Ratings for Selected Emerging Markets
Source: Continuum Economics
See Article Resources (below) to access the full range of scores.