Chartbook: US Chart 10 Year Yield: Limited gains - background studies under pressure
The anticipated break lower has not been seen, as the test below congestion support at 4.000% gives way to a bounce from 3.926%
The anticipated break lower has not been seen, as the test below congestion support at 4.000% gives way to a bounce from 3.926%.
Weekly stochastics and the weekly Tension Indicator are rising, suggesting room for further gains into early 2026 Q2, with focus to turn to congestion around 4.500%.
Just higher is the 4.600% break level.
However, weekly stochastics are already trading in overbought areas, suggesting any initial tests of this range could be limited in renewed consolidation/selling pressure.
Following cautious/corrective trade, mixed/negative monthly charts and bearish longer-term readings point to fresh losses.
A close below 4.000% will open up critical support at the 3.670% Fibonacci retracement and the 3.599% year low of September 2024.
A further close beneath here will turn sentiment outright negative and confirm a near-term top in place at the 5.021% multi-year high of October 2023. A deeper correction of the 2020-2023 rally will then open up support at the 3.230% Fibonacci retracement and the 3.250% year high of October 2018.