Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Getting more consistent with payrolls
We expect a 130k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is what we also expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months.
We expect overall payrolls, including government, to increase by 175k. Both ADP and the non-farm payroll would under our forecast be showing a modest slowing from June, when ADP reported a 150k increase. This would be the slowest increase in the ADP data since January.
Bad weather may have been a factor in January and July’s data does see some downside risk from Hurricane Beryl, though we expect the impact will be modest. Initial claims, despite a rise in the week in which Hurricane Beryl hit, saw a four week average similar to that seen during June’s survey week.
While this does suggest the underlying picture has not changed much since June, June did see initial claims higher than in May, suggesting the labor market has lost some momentum.
