Published: 2023-05-26T18:11:31.000Z
U.S. Trimmed Mean PCE Price Index Showing Little Sign Of Slowing
Senior Economist , North America
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After a slightly disappointing 0.4% increase in April’s core CPI, we took some comfort from the fact the Cleveland Feds Median CPI was showing some loss of momentum. However, after a similarly disappointing 0.4% rise in April’s core PCE price index, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation index does not provide any similar comfort.
April’s Trimmed Mean PCE Price Index rise by 4.39% annualized, up from 3.83% in March which was revised up from 3.37%. The lack of recent progress is illustrated by the one month rate being exactly the same as the 6 month rate. Both are below the 12 month pace, which suggests pressures in the latest 6 months have been a little softer than the previous 6 months, but the 12 month pace of 4.8% is a fresh high.
Core PCE price data is consistent with stable and strong inflation. The 3 month annualized pace of 4.8% may be down from 5.0% in March but the pace has been in a 4.5% to 5.0% range for 13 straight months. Yr/yr core PCE prices are up 4.7% yr/yr, up from 4.6% in March and have been in a 4.6% to 4.8% rage fir 6 straight months.