Indonesia Presidential Election: The Battle Gets Tougher
Indonesia is gearing up for its presidential election in February 2024, with three candidates currently in the running – Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. As the election approaches, the competition among the three candidates will likely intensify, and the outcome remains uncertain.
The first candidate is Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander who has run for presidency twice before and lost narrowly to the current president Joko Widodo. Despite unproven allegations of human rights violations during the late 1990s, Prabowo remains popular among a significant following. The second candidate is Ganjar Pranowo, the governor of Central Java and a leader from outside the political and military elite. Ganjar had topped opinion polls for months, but his popularity declined recently after his remarks regarding the under-20 World Cup that Indonesia was due to host. As a result, Indonesia was dropped as host, causing disappointment among fans and players. Despite this setback, Ganjar still holds 28% of the support in the latest poll. The third candidate is Anies Baswedan, the current governor of Jakarta, who is seen as a strong contender in the race due to his popularity as a leader in one of Southeast Asia's biggest and most congested cities. Anies gained praise for his COVID-19 response, but his handling of recurrent flooding has been criticized. His rise to power in 2017 was controversial due to his acceptance of endorsement from hardline Islamist groups who agitated against his opponent, an ethnic Chinese Christian. Anies is not affiliated with any political party, but he is backed by three parties, including a secular party in the ruling coalition and the conservative Muslim party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
The upcoming 2024 presidential election in Indonesia has prompted president, Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to broker a grand coalition. The coalition includes five political parties, and Jokowi's main goals appear to be to leverage his popularity to help his preferred candidate, preserve his legacy and avoid a three-way race that could split votes in favor of the opposition coalition. Jokowi's popularity remains high, with approval ratings exceeding 75%, making his support for a presidential candidate a significant factor in shaping voter choices. It appears that the Central Java governor, Ganjar Pranowo is his favoured candidate and the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI‑P)’s weight is behind him.This follows Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDI-P chairperson’s diminishing position and influence within the party, and the PDI-I calling for a presidential candidate to come from its own ranks as a condition for joining the grand coalition. The party has since declared that it will negotiate with no preconditions. Meanwhile, Pranowo's decision to support the PDI-P's stance has likely won him points among the party's elite.
Therefore, the two leading candidates in the presidential race are Gerindra leader Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo. Since late 2022, Subianto's popularity has rebounded from his previously sky-high levels after being endorsed as Gerindra's presidential candidate in August. His recent surge in popularity appears to have overtaken those of Pranowo and the NasDem candidate, Anies Baswedan in electoral simulations, although it may not be sufficient to win the election. Although Subianto ran against Jokowi twice in previous elections, his relationship with the president has evolved into a mutually beneficial partnership, with Subianto pledging to protect Jokowi's legacy. Nonetheless, it appears that the PDI-P is choosing to go with Pranowo, and reportedly Subianto has rejected the idea to join the Jokowi endorsed grand coalition. Further, it appears that the Muslim United Development Party (PPP) is expected to back Pranowo for Indonesian president. The party is due to announce its decision shortly. However, it appears that the party approved its endorsement of Jokowi backed, Pranowo, at a party meeting last week. Thus, the PPP would become the second party to back him after the senior ruling PDI-P endorsed him for president.
Meanwhile, a recent poll by Indikator Politik revealed that Subianto has overtaken Pranowo in popularity for the first time since May 2020. According to the poll, Subianto’s support increased to 22.2% in April, matching his previous peak rating in February 2020, while Pranowo’ssupport dropped significantly to 19.8% in April, his lowest performance in the poll since April 2021. This decline in popularity is attributed to his recent comments against Israel's participation in the U-20 World Cup, which led to the event being moved to Argentina as a host. Anies Baswedan, the candidate for the NasDem party, remained in third place with 15.9% support, up from 15.3% in the previous month. However, his support has been trending downwards since reaching a peak of 19.1% in November 2022. In a simulation among the three main candidates, Subianto came out on top with 32.7% support, followed by Pranowo with 27.9% and Anies with 22.2%.
In terms of political parties, the PDI-P remained the most popular with 15.2% support, closely followed by Gerindra with 14.7%. However, the PDI-P's support has dropped significantly in the past month due to the U-20 World Cup scandal, giving Gerindra the opportunity to close the gap. Golkar came in third with 8.8% support, far behind the two major parties.
In summary, Jokowi's efforts to broker a grand coalition are likely to get some support for Pranowo. However, with Subianto's renewed surge in popularity making him the top contender for now, and his refusal to join the grand coalition, the race for president appears to have gotten tougher. Our expectation is that despite the recent setback, Pranowo is likely to succeed in the up-coming election given support from the PDI-P and other smaller parties in the coalition. President Jowoki’s popularity is also likely to lend support to him.