Chartbook: US Chart 10 Year Yield: Yield prices remain under pressure

The test of congestion around 4.000% has given way to the anticipated break,

with prices extending the fall from strong resistance at congestion around 5.000% and the 5.02% multi-year high of October 2023.

Critical support at the 3.783% monthly low of 28 December 2023 and the 3.670% Fibonacci retracement is currently under pressure, but a fresh tick lower in monthly stochastics and the falling monthly Tension Indicator highlight room for still further cheapening of yield prices into 2024 Q4.

A close below here will add weight to sentiment and confirm a deeper correction of the rally from the 0.333% all-time low of March 2020, as strong support within the 3.250% year high of October 2018 and the 2.230% retracement then attracts. However, already oversold monthly stochastics are expected to limit any initial tests in consolidation.

(Deteriorating longer-term charts point to risk of still deeper losses following any consolidation.)

Meanwhile, resistance is at congestion around 4.000%.

A close above here would help to stabilise price action and prompt fresh consolidation beneath the 4.500% break level. But an unexpected close above the 4.739% April is needed to turn price action cautiously positive and put focus back on critical resistance at 5.000%/5.02%.

Continuation beyond here is needed to confirm continuation of the March 2020 bull trend and progressively more expensive yield prices.