Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears
· For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year. Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027 revenue trajectory – industry analysts had been looking for 3 times increase in Anthropic revenue compared to 12 times increase in 2026. This could produce some profit-taking in the AI trade (here), but is probably not serious to cause a more significant shakeout.
The AI story is taking a number of twists and turns. Over the weekend Open AI indicated that their IPO would not occur until 2027 due to safety fears. This most likely reflects the Open AI model attack on Hugging Face that involved thousands of agents that was concealed from humans (here) and has cause active debate in Silicon valley. Additionally, Anthropic CEO has called for a slowing of AI development given safety risks and has already been backed by the Open AI and XAI CEO’s.
However, president Trump has already rejected a significant step up in regulation and slowing of AI development, as the Trump administration wants to win the AI race with China. In Trump’s mind this is likely to be both an economic race, but also in terms of military capability. While some guardrails are possible, this is unlikely to materially slow the pace of AI development itself. Meanwhile, China is somewhat conflicted. China does not want AI development that undermines the control and security of the China Communist Party over China society. However, it also wants cutting edge development to proceed to keep up with the U.S., including for military capability!
Some in Silicon Valley also reflect that the calls for a slowing of AI development could also be existing leading AI labs trying to increase their moats by shaping the regulatory environment to curtail new disruptive competitors. Self-regulation may not be enough of a moat, as all companies may not agree and thus the push to have the Trump administration work with U.S. market leaders to design regulation.
For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year. Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027 revenue trajectory – industry analysts had been looking for 3 times increase in Anthropic revenue compared to 12 times increase in 2026. This could produce some profit-taking in the AI trade (here), but is probably not serious to cause a more significant shakeout.