EUR/NOK-Commentary

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August 13, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - some downside on the PPI data, but FX currently not playing
Paying Article

August 13, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

PPI data slightly undershoots but FX not that engaged 

EUR/NOK flows: Norges Bank holds as expected, slightly less hawkish but reserves judgement
Paying Article

August 13, 2026 8:09 AM UTC

Norges as expected, on hold and notes inflation undershoot
It reserves judgement but overall slightly less hawkish
Outlook ultimately depends on global backdrop over next few quarters

August 12, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - CPI as expected and likely defers judgements
Paying Article

August 12, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Slight damp squib, very much on consensus. 
A report that probably wont change any opinions greatly. 
Another CPI report (and PCE data) to come before Sep FOMC and that could be more critical

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - still waiting on $-influential CPI
Paying Article

August 12, 2026 6:50 AM UTC

No sign of movement in Iran, mkt otherwise still holding sight into US CPI
Latter has potential to move the mkt, especially with positioning still overall long dollar

August 11, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Oil cycles with the headlines; existing home sales as expected, CPI the focus
Paying Article

August 11, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Quiet day, oil stays off the highs after Pakistan positive noises but waits on the facts
Otherwise, drifting into the US CPI release

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - quiet day, oil still drifting out
Paying Article

August 11, 2026 6:51 AM UTC

Quiet out of Japan holiday,
Oil drifts out as Iran deal elusive and bogged down in rhetoric

August 10, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/NOK Flows: core NOK CPI a little under, still waiting on Iran
Paying Article

August 10, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Yen in Fri's bar, still basing and in n/t consolidation/correction mode
Iran says Oman deal close, rhetoric on US demands remains high
NOK inflation higher on headline but a little under on core, Norge hike odds relatively limited for Aug

August 07, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Payrolls pressures $ longs, even with unemployment rate proviso
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Downside payrolls surprises with revisions - although note that zero or less is now trend...
Unemployment rate dip one counterpoint, though soft earnings the deciding factor
Focus turns to inflation data, but long $ positioning hit again, USD/JPY retains downside skew

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Waiting on payrolls
Paying Article

August 7, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Oil mid range for the week, waiting to see if a deal emerges and how viable it is
Otherwise focus on US payrolls. Market has been invited to react and express its opinion

August 06, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Oil, UST, dollar, all on edge
Paying Article

August 6, 2026 4:45 PM UTC

More wires comments leaving the market on edge over rhetorical exchanges and practical problems with deal
Oil, USTs, dollar also see a pop

August 05, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Waiting for latest 'deal'; BoJ 'market savvy' on timing?
Paying Article

August 5, 2026 6:47 AM UTC

All eyes on the latest 'deal', US hopeful of today; cedes to much of Iran's wish list
Bessent underscores BoJ expectations; market savvy thing to deal is not dally in Sep

August 04, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Flows: Consolidation on a quiet day, same big picture issues
Paying Article

August 4, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

After a few wilder sessions, market in quiter consolidation amid stretched moves, quiet calendar
Same big picture issues remain in the background, payrolls next extra input

July 30, 2026

EUR/USD Flows: Data tending to aggravate the mini squeeze
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

Data stull nudging EUR/USD into resistance today, 1.15 next on any further mini squeeze

EUR/USD Flows: Firmer EZ GDP, national CPI
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

Firmer CPI and especially EZ GDP data leaves EUR/USD bolstered, mini squeeze risk above resistance

EUR/USD Flows: UST pivotal steepen post Fed, US30s >5.2%
Paying Article

July 30, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Market left confused and sceptical by FOMC presser, curve steepens, 30s break levels
Also juggling widening ECB-Fed hike probabilities with fresh Iran strikes

July 29, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Trump and Korea keep eye on oil, tech, into FOMC
Paying Article

July 29, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

USTs slip on further oil lift as Trump threatens to hit Iran hard again
S.Korea responds to recent turmoil, could keep wider market edgy

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Tech and oil still churn; uncertain Fed key focus
Paying Article

July 29, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Market unusually uncertain into Fed, so plenty of scope to react
USD/JPY seeing (very minor) weight as Nikkei stays dragged into mth-end
Oil breaks correction on latest proxy flare up

July 14, 2026

EUR/USD Flows - US CPI in focus after Fed Waller; Iran exchanges continue
Paying Article

July 14, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Brent up at $85 now as oil market reluctantly responds to blockade, strikes in last few sessions
US CPI key, focus sharpened by Fed Waller's remarks

July 09, 2026

EUR/USD Flows - ECB predetermined, Fed open minded? (Fed Williams, ECB Minutes)
Paying Article

July 9, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

ECB Minutes unsurprisingly hawkish given the decision and the presser, but do underscore the rigid view on the mmkt curve
Fed Williams meanwhile nods to upside risks, but mainly highlights 'collective reaction function' and open questions

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Chilli yesterday, TACO today?
Paying Article

July 9, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Familiar de-escalation comments follow yesterday's outburst and fresh exchanges. Mkt left waiting to hear from Iran
Fed Minutes highlight two scenarios and rate paths ahead. Iran and tech demand remain highly relevant
EUR/GBP meanwhile inching out the lows

July 08, 2026

USD Flows - Dangerous rhetoric loop?
Paying Article

July 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

Iran threat to close Strait adds to the ramp up
Danger that things get out of control in current rhetoric-action one-upping, even if result makes no sense

EUR/USD Flows - Trump shooting from hip at NATO, Iran MOU 'over' and Spain 'no trade'
Paying Article

July 8, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Trump firing shots at NATO, aiming at Spain and Iran
MoU 'over' comments can spook oil and squeeze NOK (and CAD)

USD flows: FX subdued even with the fragile backdrop
Paying Article

July 8, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Kiwi the outperformer on the RBNZ rate hike
Elsewhere FX remains subdued even with some fragility in the backdrop 

June 24, 2026

NOK flows: Oil fall away still driving on retracement
Paying Article

June 24, 2026 1:52 PM UTC

Oil ongoing slide back to initial gap and USD/NOK breakout still driving pair higher
10~ area next on the pair

June 23, 2026

USD flows: Still at or through various resistance levels
Paying Article

June 23, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

USD still on the rise vs majors with various resistance levels being tested or cleared

June 18, 2026

EUR/NOK flows: Norges Bank sticks to script, but NOK focused more on Iran/oil
Paying Article

June 18, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

Norges sticks to script on upside inflation risks and likely need for a further hike
Yet it also acknowledges Iran deal and that energy drop could weaken pressures
Overall EUR/NOK still correcting 2026 downtrend on Iran/ ToT trade unwind/profit-taking 

June 15, 2026

NOK/SEK flows: Not plain sailing but correction still in play
Paying Article

June 15, 2026 8:52 AM UTC

NOK/SEK still biased to profit-taking retracement on big leg up, so long as confidence firms in the deal
Unlikely to be entirely plain sailing and volatility free given misaligned parties involved

June 11, 2026

USD flows: Iran state of play down to cash is king?
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 10:18 AM UTC

Reuters sources suggest talks continue, political agreement but all down to frozen funds
In some ways good, though there are strong reasons why this is the main last and critical sticking point

June 10, 2026

NOK/SEK flows: Cross currents
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

Firm data from both Norway (CPI) and Sweden (monthly output, GDP) , though both need to be seen in context
Norges Bank policy is already seen tight and well ahead of the curve 
Cross currents from subdued oil amid nuclear progress hopes and risk market volatility

May 27, 2026

NOK/SEK flows: Pullback to 0.98~ if oil correction continues to stick?
Paying Article

May 27, 2026 8:33 AM UTC

Oil pullback proving sticky for now, as talks neither delivering nor breaking down yet
Could see NOK/SEK overbought run and pullback extend towards 0.98 if it holds

May 18, 2026

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC

IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up

USD flows: Watching volatility, USD/EM, for pointers (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

FX moves slow into various big figure correction levels, but USD squeeze remains the risk
Watching background pointers such as MOVE, USD/EM for broader risk aversion

May 15, 2026

USD flows: more of the same from US data and shakeout (DXY, AUD, EUR, NOK)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

US data shows strength on prices and activity, chipping away at dollar shorts
Backdrop remains skewed to stretched position reductions

USD flows: Feeling the stretch (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 9:47 AM UTC

A clash of themes coming to a head as over-accelerating AI, risk and commodity complex trades run into ongoing Iran standoff and the mini dollar squeeze
The likes of AUD, semiconductors, Kospi, metals, have been overrunning m/t trends, not to maximum excess, but to degrees that are vulnerable to a lo

USD flows: Bit of a dollar squeeze; stretched risk pullback
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Dollar squeeze spreads after cable lead; stretched metals and risk mkt pull backs help broaden
Some s/t chart shifts seen, such as in NOK

May 11, 2026

NOK flows: Usual Monday oil bounce, EUR/NOK sitting on support
Paying Article

May 11, 2026 6:40 AM UTC

EUR/NOK still pressing support area after 'usual' weekend negative comments and oil bounce. More downside scope on spreads.

May 08, 2026

USD, JPY, EUR, NOK, CAD oil flows: Ever present weekend risk
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Recent pattern of hope for the best, hedge for the worst heading into w/e

May 07, 2026

NOK flows: NOK rallies on Norges Bank rate hike
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 8:21 AM UTC

Norges Bank hikes the policy rateto 4.25%. NOK rallies as market had been split on probability of a hike. Scope for further NOK gains medium term

January 09, 2026

EUR, NOK flows: NOK supported by CPI, German output strong
Paying Article

January 9, 2026 7:30 AM UTC

NOK firmer after CPI comes in above consensus. EUR should find support from stronger German output

December 29, 2025

EUR/NOK, NOK/SEK: NOK to Uprate in 2026
Paying Article

December 29, 2025 11:30 AM UTC

We see EUR/NOK to 11.0 by end 2026.

December 10, 2025

NOK, SEK, JPY flows: SEK still firm after GDP decline, JPY weakness continues
Paying Article

December 10, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

SEK still strong despite drop in October GDP. JPY weakness continues, intervention likely necessary soon.

November 10, 2025

NOK, JPY flows: NOK firmer after CPI, JPY weaker on hopes of end to US shutdown
Paying Article

November 10, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

NOK rallies as CPI comes out strong in October. JPY weaker as risk rallies on hopes of end to US government shutdown

November 06, 2025

NOK flows: NOK marginally firmer after Norges Bank decision
Paying Article

November 6, 2025 9:12 AM UTC

NOK edges higher after Norges Bank leaves rates unchanged

October 28, 2025

AUD, CAD, NOK flows: Commodity currencies higher
Paying Article

October 28, 2025 3:02 PM UTC

Commodity currencies all higher in North America morning trading

October 10, 2025

NOK, JPY flows: NOK little changed after CPI, JPY makes modest recovery
Paying Article

October 10, 2025 6:54 AM UTC

Norwegna CPI much as expected, NOK remains in the centre of the range. JPY makes a modest recovery as political picture in Japan becomes more uncertain

September 18, 2025

NOK flows: NOK net little changed after hawkish cut
Paying Article

September 18, 2025 8:16 AM UTC

Norges Bank cut rates, but indicated a less dovish future profile

USD, EUR, JPY, NOK flows: USD firmer after Fed, JPY soft, NOK could slip on Norges Bank
Paying Article

September 18, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

USD firmer after Fed despite larger than expected 2025 rate cuts in the dots. JPY continues to underperform. NOK can slip on Norges Bank

September 15, 2025

USD, AUD, NOK, JPY flows: Equity strength supports riskier currencies, but...
Paying Article

September 15, 2025 6:51 AM UTC

Equity gains have helped AUD and NOK rise, but rising risk premia suggest JPY can catch up.

September 10, 2025

USD, NOK, SEK, JPY flows: Quiet markets ahead of US price data
Paying Article

September 10, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

FX markets briadly steady but JPY and NOK remain undervalued

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