EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Waiting for latest 'deal'; BoJ 'market savvy' on timing?

Very flat overnight as the market adopts a waiting posture, having seen many a deal announced as imminent to then be left disappointed in some fashion. Axios suggesting US aiming for an announcement today though so very much the main focus. The rumoured outline has the US effectively conceding to Iran’s demands to be controlling/administrating flow in the Strait, to a degree at least – all inbound on the Iran side, outbound on the Oman side, and the middle for both once cleared 'under terms to be agreed'. In short, a 60-day transition to then quietly allow toll/fees after seemingly. Brent sitting around $89 at present to see what transpires and the extent to which the US is really onboard a new setup versus a can kick from its weak current position.

Other main point of interest has been Bessent talking a fair bit about the BoJ, noting Ueda is ‘market savvy’ and will do the right thing. It did feel like a hike in Sep rather than waiting for Oct had become a bit of a shoo-in (what’s the point in the wait that does nothing other than undermine the joint intervention) and the market has now adjusted a little further, moving up to just under 60% odds. The government (quid pro quo?) also suggesting the BoJ look at buying more bonds. Political pressure on both sides then (BoJ to hike, Fed to not). Yen also in the waiting mode today after looking a little firmer on the Bessent talk.