EUR/USD Flows: Firmer EZ GDP, national CPI

Eurozone data this morning coming in largely on the upside of expectations on both the GDP and inflation side. EZ GDP came in at 0.4%q/q vs mkt 0.2%, picking up especially to 1%y/y (mkt 0.5%). Business investment as with the US remains an upside influence.

Earlier, on the inflation side, Spain flash Jul HICP at 3.8% from 3.6% (mkt 3.7%), and German state CPI figures generally on the firm to as-expected side, suggesting that the national CPI figure later will probably come in at least 2.7% from 2.3% previously expected.

Data tending to keep the market current pricing for Sep biased to ECB follow through (2/3 probability) vs the now more uncertain pricing currently in for the Fed, which is keeping short-end led FX pricing and related narrative sentiment a little offside. EUR/USD still sitting around 1.1450~ consolidating the post Fed move without extending into .87/1.15. Juggling fragile equity-risk-sentiment, relative central bank pricing, longer spreads and geopolitics is leaving a lot more potential for session by session chop. The above noted resistance is key near-term in terms of any potential intraday squeeze, given positioning into midweek