EUR/USD Flows - Trump shooting from hip at NATO, Iran MOU 'over' and Spain 'no trade'

Politics remains as chaotic as ever. Trump meeting NATO was always going to be a potential opportunity for headline disorder. The line that he had ordered Treasury Bessent to 'cut off all trade with Spain', a 'terrible partner' in NATO – hard to know quite what to do with that. Clearly not euro positive but at the same time the kind of context-driven freewheeling remark that is hard to really treat concretely either. EUR/USD has nudged down a little if broadly flat on the day.

Meanwhile, Le Pen’s decision to stand despite the tagging restraints and to make a political feature of it (very Farrage-esque) has tended to see OATs leak out a little although non-core in general more focused on the broader high beta tone.

Topping it off now is the extra Trump remark that the MOU ‘I think is over’ and doesn't want to deal with them. All very tricky for the market, these international get-togethers are just the type of occasions Trump makes big sweeping aggressive comments. Clearly though, speaks to the underlying fragility of the situation after the latest exchanges and the ongoing power struggle over the Strait. Oil has been very calm but can start to be spooked more notably now, and that will tend to play to NOK and CAD today that had got a bit oversold.