NOK/SEK flows: Not plain sailing but correction still in play
NOK/SEK still biased to profit-taking retracement on big leg up, so long as confidence firms in the deal
Unlikely to be entirely plain sailing and volatility free given misaligned parties involved
There's more wood to chop in terms of the details that have been kicked forward. And given the volatile and unaligned parties involved - both collective across Israel, Iran, Lebanon, and US - and internally within all of the same, the probability of mini skirmishes, misunderstandings and false flags along the way still seems relatively high. But as long as the US remains committed to an exit ramp, the hope and belief is that these can be negotiated even if the re-opening is unlikely to be completely plain sailing.
With oil back down to the low $80s all the same, the focus remains on corrective action from some of the main trades and moves seen over the period. NOK/SEK is still seeing measured profit-taking, -0.98~ on the first test back and has 0.9750/30 (38%) and 0.96 (50%) if the move gains confidence and further retracement, and if broader high beta risks holds onto its regained footing for now.