EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK flows - tech and oil still dominate mood
Nasdaq bounces, but so far only to re-test range break lower, Apple next up
Iran talks see oil ease, NOK with it
A calmer start to the week after a volatile end to last, with Nasdaq up 0.8% ahead of Apple earnings (Kospi up 2 ¼ %), though with more to do to be reversing the range breakdown rather than just normally re-testing it.
Other main focus, and helping the risk mood, is a decent drop in oil, front months off around $3-3 ½. Action led by reports that talks between Iran and Qatari mediators extend into a third day, with a proposal being discussed that would open the Strait in two days of an agreement with the US. Break of $100 for Nymex would be needed to suggest the market is starting to give it more credence given past false hopes along similar lines. It’s an interesting window into the eve of the in-balance midterms, and also crucial for coming out of those regardless, given the previous dominant hawkish chatter. US and Israel domestic politics remain key.
Some reciprocal consolidation/correction on the FX side, with EUR/USD lifting back towards the 1.12~ balance, USD/JPY into its prior 157.85-158 supply area. NOK off on the weakest start for the obvious reasons and certainly quite exposed to scenarios that did see a surprise rapid deal emerge. The mood music from recent source reports, including the prior suggestions of the letter from VD Vance, do imply more instigation on the US side of late.