EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - CPI as expected and likely defers judgements
Slight damp squib, very much on consensus.
A report that probably wont change any opinions greatly.
Another CPI report (and PCE data) to come before Sep FOMC and that could be more critical
US CPI data right on expectations at 0.2% core and 2.5% from 2.6%y/y, with headline 0.1% and 3.4% from 3.5%. Unrounded core is around 0.215%, so a ‘clean' 0.2% result. Figures fall on the market a little flat after the anticipation as it’s not giving a strong lean. In some respects, there’s a relief factor that the data hasn’t surprised on the upside as that would have shaken things up more for bonds. But at the same time the market is already somewhat long dollars and actually went into the release already leaning more for downside if anything (for the last year, the core CPI prints have actually rarely surprised to the upside in fact and so this continues that trend). All in all, probably nothing that is going to really change anyone’s opinion at this point. There is another CPI print (as well as PCE data) to come before the Sep FOMC and that one may actually be more critical in terms of establishing trend and showing tone out of the period of energy price drop back.