EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back
Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed
Downside miss, especially with revisions, as June comes in at 57k, half consensus, and the prior 2 months are revised down in total by a good 70k to both be in the lower 100ks now.
Only proviso is that unemployment rate does drop to 4.2% (mkt 4.3%), so that angle is giving a slightly tighter perspective at the margin. Focus will be on the momentum seen in the payrolls trends though.
Certainly gives the Fed some added excuse to wait and see while oil prices have also fully reversed back to their pre- Iran levels.
Market-wise, even if the jury can be out on the data big picture, it is a clear impetus to knee-jerk futures easier more towards an on-hold Fed view and to trim the dollar. EUR/USD moves up to circa 1.1450~ which is where the next higher level of options sat today. USD/JPY jittery exits earlier will be feeling pleased and the pair is a bit heavy on the s/t chart now.