GBP/USD flows: Labour mkt data steadier, focus on BoE, FOMC digesting
Labour market data better than last month at least
Focus on BoE with wait-and-see expected
Slight backfilling and consolidation from the FOMC dollar move
UK labour market data proves firmer than expected with unemployment dropping below 5% (4.9% vs mkt 5%), earnings holding at 3.4% (mkt 3.2%), and tax-based workers on payrolls rising 2k with the prior month tempered, revised to -53k from -100k.
Data is at least net positive relative to last month's picture, but doesn’t substantially move the dial into the BoE later in the day where an unchanged decision and wait-and-see guidance is expected.
Sterling following the crowd and generally slightly backfilling and consolidating yesterday’s FOMC reactions.
The latter may have been slightly overdone given the projections were arguably not as hawkish as the medians implied, but they did still play, thematically, to the market’s renewed focus on current US outperformance and shift the skew to the dollar on the near-term charts.