DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 10-14
Key focus this week is US CPI. We look for 0.1% headline, 0.2% core
UK GDP consensus 0.1% in Jun but downside risks from heatwave?
Mkt eyes BoJ meeting comments for clues
Data and events for the week ahead
USA
US data focus will be on inflation, with July CPI due on Wednesday and July PPI due on Thursday. We expect subdued data, though less so than seen in June. We expect CPI to rise by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with PPI also rising by 0.1% but with a 0.3% increase ex food and energy.
Tuesday sees July’s NFIB small business optimism survey, while later we expect a 1.5% fall in July existing home sales to 4.03m. Wednesday also sees July’s budget statement. Weekly initial claims are due on Thursday when Fed hawk Hammack and moderate Barkin will also speak.
On Friday we expect July retail sales to be unchanged, with 0.2% increase ex autos and a second straight 0.4% increase ex autos and gasoline. June business inventories and the preliminary August Michigan CSI are also due.
CANADA
Canada releases June building permits on Wednesday. Friday sees June manufacturing and wholesale sales, for which preliminary estimates were for a 0.1% decline and a 2.7% increase respectively.
Eurozone
A light schedule in mid-summer. June EZ industrial production on August 13 is expected to see a further small fall, as the impact of high energy prices act as a headwind but should recover somewhat into the autumn with energy prices less elevated than the spring. August 14 sees the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP, but 0.4% is expected once again Qtr/Qtr.
UK
UK data is concentrated on August 13, with the June GDP expected to see a 0.1% monthly rise. Meanwhile, the stream of (small fiscal) policy announcement has slowed in the mid-summer period, but will likely pick up again in early September as PM Burnham looks to extend the poll bounce for Labour. Chancellor Healey continues to make clear that he is committed to the fiscal rules.
JP
Kick starting the week with BoJ summary of opinions, slim chance of cues for future rate hikes but still worth a look. Followed by PPI on Thursday and some tier two data throughout the week.
AU
The RBA rate decision is on Tuesday and we forecast no change to interest rate. The RBA will take more time to assess the second wave energy spike that last much shorter than the first, believing it will have a lesser impact on inflation. Otherwise, we could see a hawkish bids in the Aussie.
NZ
Only RBNZ Inflation expectations on Thursday will be important for NZ next week.