DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 3-7
US payrolls the major highlight - solid data expected, albeit with unemployment rate correcting back up
Otherwise, a relatively quiet week elsewhere
Data and events for the week ahead
USA
The US data highlight will be July’s employment report on Friday. We expect a 120k increase in the non-farm payroll, 110k in the private sector, picking up from a June number that was restrained by a surprising fall in leisure and hospitality. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June drop, and a second straight 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. We expect the payroll to outperform a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate on private sector employment growth due on Wednesday, after June data when ADP outperformed. June’s JOLTS report on job openings is due on Tuesday. Thursday sees weekly initial claims, which are likely to continue correcting from a recent low, and the Q2 productivity and costs report.
July ISM reports are due. We expect slippage in manufacturing on Monday to 53.0 from 53.3 but an increase in services on Wednesday to 54.5 from 54.0. Monday also sees June construction spending. On Tuesday we expect June’s trade deficit to fall to $73.5bn from $77.6bn in May. June factory orders are also due. Thursday sees June wholesale sales and Friday sees June consumer credit. Any Fed talk will be closely watched. Musalem will speak on Thursday while Barkin is due on Friday.
CANADA
Canada’s data highlight will be July employment on Friday, where we expect a rise of 20k with unemployment remaining at 6.5%. June’s trade balance is due on Tuesday. July manufacturing PMIs are due from S and P on Tuesday and Ivey on Friday.
EUROZONE
For the EZ, a week of 2nd tier releases. August 5 sees June PPI, which is expected to decline Yr/Yr, but July energy prices bounces promises a rebound with the July figures. June EZ retail sales on August 6 is expected to see a slowdown, while the July final PMI data is expected to be unchanged from the provisional reasonable figures.
UK
For the UK, a low intensity week, with July final PMI figures for Manufacturing August 3 and Services on August 5. No surprises are expected. Focus will remain on the new PM Burnham spending commitments for clarity on what will happen in the autumn budget.
JP
Labor Cash Earnings on Wednesday and overall household spending on Friday will be the important releases for Japan. Wage growth for June is unlikely being affected by the second round U.S.-Iran conflict yet and should points toward above 2% growth. Household consumption is also expected to improve, given the strengthening real wage.
AU
Private inflation survey on Monday and trade balance on Thursday are unlikely to sway the Aussie or RBA decision.
NZ
The Q2 labor report will be released on Tuesday. If we are seeing a stronger than expected result for wage, there is a chance market anticipation for RBNZ/s hawkish tilt will be accelerated and see a push for Kiwi.