EUR/USD flows - Notable PMI upside, even as break follows through

September 23, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

EUR/USD follows through on the support break
Very notable upside on the EZ PMI worth noting however

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - Dollar stretches firmer with spreads

September 23, 2026 7:01 AM UTC

Dollar extends its broad post Fed gains, as Fed speakers maintain hawkish skew; Oct hike just above 50-50
EUR/USD tracks short end spread action; eying oil and relative impact going forward
Brent sitting below $100, talking up Iran prospects

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: long end rallies out of APF announcement

September 17, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

APF announcement sees a pause as it discusses shift to purchases to the government via the DMO
Thereafter, average sales seen around £46bn, with a freeze on sales outside of (partially) 2049

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: MPC 'passes'; still back of the tightening pack

September 17, 2026 11:23 AM UTC

BoE leaves rates unchanged with unchanged vote.
November IR month remains the real test as the Bank takes stock of length of supply shock and so risk balance
Mkt already running ahead of the MPC though in terms of pricing, BoE remains back of the major CB pack

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: back-to-back or election pause could be key $ factor

September 17, 2026 9:46 AM UTC

After Fed hike, whether it goes back-to-back or waits for Dec could be a key factor for the $ near-term
History has tended to favour the follow up moves, but election is the big elephant in the room this time
Oct is heavily loaded symbolically, both in terms of how mkt would price (majority Fed dots o

USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows: Supply, expiries cap USD/JPY back; focus turns to BoE MPC

September 17, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Consolidation of the post Fed move overall
USD/JPY weighed back from 156+ by supply and approaching large expiry at 155, ahead of key BoJ meeting
Focus today on the BoE, seen unchanged but judging the vote and the tone. Seen slowing QT

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Key highlights from Fed SEP pivot, stepping $ higher

September 16, 2026 7:16 PM UTC

Key highlights from the FOMC Sep, as Fed funds projections lifted higher
Market expectations for this year validated with upside skew, 2027 slightly below though largest number see the extra hike delivered, narrowing the gap
EUR/USD breaks down to around 1.1475~, 61.8% retracement, with 1.1420 below
US

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Fed shifts gears, sees quick, short dash to get back up to the curve on inflation

September 16, 2026 6:22 PM UTC

Clear shift in emphasis to catching up to the curve on elevated inflation
Dots suggest the Fed is minded to catch up with a quick string of corrective tightenings this year before hoping to plateau at less accommodative FF
Speed of adjustment bolsters dollar, despite less hawkish long projections than

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: mind the gap - dots have a large one to bridge...

September 16, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Looking back at the June SEP, dots shows what a large gap has developed to current mkt pricing
Uncertain, mixed FOMC may struggle to validate that leap and leave quite a large divergence behind
Interesting to judge markets' reaction to disagreement. 
MMKT and bonds have got oversold in recent accelera

GBP/USD, EUR/USD flows: Sidelined into big Fed meeting; no surprises from UK CPI

September 16, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

FX holds flat into the big FOMC meeting, focused on the dots and the tone
UK CPI as expected, likely leaves BoE in divided pause this week

EUR/USD flows: Minor dip out of announcement, but projections nudged up

September 10, 2026 12:30 PM UTC

Minor intraday sell fact on announcement but even with boilerplate language inflation projection nudged up
Inflation risks to upside, growth risks to the downside

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: ECB, US PPI, then CPI; mkt wary of hawkish risks from both sides

September 10, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

ECB meeting, then PPI followed by CPI from the US
Mkt wary of 'hawkish' surprises from both sides, could see some chop
For the ECB, main interest will be whether recent US-Iran developments and energy complex pressure hardens the neutral tone

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Buyback announcement provides some $ interest

September 9, 2026 11:59 AM UTC

Some focus on buyback size later, ahead of week's key events

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Main themes continue prior to end of week event risks

September 9, 2026 8:07 AM UTC

USD/JPY continues to see supply, dragging the dollar, even as oil elevated
ECB, US inflation the approaching headline event risks

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BoE TSC testimony still favouring pause

September 8, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

BoE testimony to TSC very much as expected, overall and by individual 
Majority BoE MPC central view remains that tightening from higher mortgage rates, lack of 2nd round impact, soft labour market, all support wait and see, even if inflation risks remain to upside

AUD/NZD flows - RBA talking quite hawkish, cross extending major rally

September 8, 2026 10:23 AM UTC

RBA speaker quite hawkish on inflation, supporting hike expectations
Cross extends the major rally, chipping away towards major projection big picture

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Trump making sure Sep FOMC is political minefield

September 4, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

Trump renews the political pressure on the Fed
Makes for an even more 'interesting' debate at the next FOMC

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Good upside on payrolls, though earnings steady. CPI more critical

September 4, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Good upside on the payrolls data, at least outside of earnings, suggests momentum stays solid
Fed will probably stick to view that labor market healthy, firm and generally balanced, especially with earnings not accelerating
That leaves inflation data as the key policy data factor

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: As you were out of ADP, mkt still digesting backdrop

September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ADP broaldy within expectations, offers no new lean into payrolls
Minor adjustments on non-yielding (CHF) and risk sides
But otherwise contained trade, digesting how bond-risk-FX plays out near-term

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Focus still on bond-risk-FX interplay

September 2, 2026 7:18 AM UTC

Focal point still on rising yields and the interplay with risk, and then to FX
USD/JPY finds supply and some rotation to CHF; maybe signs of tightening and renewed risk support

EUR/USD flows: HICP up, ECB ready, details nuanced. Blog says 'its all energy' so be measured

September 1, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

HICP as expected, leaves ECB follow up in Sep 100% priced in
Details show all overshoot currently all in energy/processed food
An ECB Blog today (note to the hawks?), gives structural analysis that all energy supply side driven, unlike pandemic, and so requires measured response

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: Yields at the highs; BoE (and GBP?) the laggard?

September 1, 2026 6:55 AM UTC

Distillates remain pressured following the fresh Strait exchanges
Yields at the highs, JGBs at 30yr highs, on the ongoing fiscal, monetary, inflation and premia mix
BoJ, ECB and Fed all odds-on to hike in Sep, BoE the standout - could leave GBP the laggard near-term

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Dollar firms out of Warsh; GBP the rates laggard?

August 28, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

Warsh in line with colleagues in characterising policy as unrestrictive and focus on prices, with work to do
Follows an ECB also primed to hike and with a minority their also moving more hawkish
BoE (and GBP?) might be the laggard unless Bailey also changes tact next week

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Waiting for Warsh; French, Spanish HICP bounce

August 28, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

Still sidelined ahead of Warsh
Early HICP print bounces keep mkt looking for Sep hike

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Latest core PCE prices as expected but data generally quite 'hot'

August 26, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

US data mixed and includes as-expected latest core PCE
However, general story is still a bit 'hot', US2s up around 4bp and dollar a touch firmer

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD - US PCE and Nvidia next up; Iran talks continue

August 26, 2026 7:03 AM UTC

Aussie the main mover after firmer CPI data
Dual track Iran talks continue, if still 'complicated'
PCE data the big focus of the day, followed by Nvidia 

USD Flows: Bessent underwhelming on Iran sanctions

August 24, 2026 7:41 PM UTC

The USD is modestly firmer but Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of sanctions targeting Iran seems to have underwhelmed the markets.

EUR/USD, USD/CAD - week's main events backloaded; CAD the main exception

August 24, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

Flat trade, with week's main events from Wed onwards, though Bessent speaks on Iran sanctions today
CAD the main exception, though initial reaction to talk breakdown modest; spec mkt remained short CAD

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: strong data, market could test Treasury to entice further interventions

August 20, 2026 2:06 PM UTC

US30s give back some of the kneejerk relief and parts of the US economy still running strong
The market might test the Treasury after its recent intervention
If so, that could further complicate the fiscal-monetary blur

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: dollar remains off balance, prone to pressure

August 20, 2026 7:02 AM UTC

USD remains weighed out of yesterday's move even if the current risk bounce stems the USD/funding drops
EUR/USD just off next resistance and looking higher on the charts
Will bond vigilantes accept the gift or, like many interventions, pressure for more

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Dollar breaks lower with yields after Treasury backstopping signal

August 19, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

Dollar breaks lower as Treasury increases long end buyback ops
Drives long end yields down, reverses the week's gains, and viewed as backstopping reassurance
Dollar reaction both driven by yields but also the 'bad look'

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP flows: Risk still retreating, CAD not celebrating yet; data leaves BoE views unchanged

August 19, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Risk still correcting while bonds level off, and oil still drifting out 
CAD not yet celebrating potential deal, as talks extended 
Sterling unmoved by CPI, BoE odds still at that gradual move to one hike view

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - new long end yield highs jangle nerves

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Push out in long end US yields to refresh post 2007 highs 
May start to jangle nerves as risk mkt emerge from low vol summer-happy mood

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - retail miss adds to dollar trimming

August 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Fairly hefty downside miss on retail sales headlines adds another straw this week
May tip $ into more of a pullback having stuck in their long

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows - no-vol summer, but for how long; BoJ hike talk continues

August 14, 2026 7:03 AM UTC

Low vol summer, extreme lows may be suggestive of more noise ahead, eventually
Further sources talk of BoJ mulling Sep and faster
UK byelection finishes with Reform winning locally, but losing nationally