EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Oil cycles with the headlines; existing home sales as expected, CPI the focus

August 11, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Quiet day, oil stays off the highs after Pakistan positive noises but waits on the facts
Otherwise, drifting into the US CPI release

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - quiet day, oil still drifting out

August 11, 2026 6:51 AM UTC

Quiet out of Japan holiday,
Oil drifts out as Iran deal elusive and bogged down in rhetoric

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Payrolls pressures $ longs, even with unemployment rate proviso

August 7, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Downside payrolls surprises with revisions - although note that zero or less is now trend...
Unemployment rate dip one counterpoint, though soft earnings the deciding factor
Focus turns to inflation data, but long $ positioning hit again, USD/JPY retains downside skew

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Waiting on payrolls

August 7, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Oil mid range for the week, waiting to see if a deal emerges and how viable it is
Otherwise focus on US payrolls. Market has been invited to react and express its opinion

EUR/USD Flows: Data tending to aggravate the mini squeeze

July 30, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

Data stull nudging EUR/USD into resistance today, 1.15 next on any further mini squeeze

EUR/USD Flows: Firmer EZ GDP, national CPI

July 30, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

Firmer CPI and especially EZ GDP data leaves EUR/USD bolstered, mini squeeze risk above resistance

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Trump and Korea keep eye on oil, tech, into FOMC

July 29, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

USTs slip on further oil lift as Trump threatens to hit Iran hard again
S.Korea responds to recent turmoil, could keep wider market edgy

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Tech and oil still churn; uncertain Fed key focus

July 29, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Market unusually uncertain into Fed, so plenty of scope to react
USD/JPY seeing (very minor) weight as Nikkei stays dragged into mth-end
Oil breaks correction on latest proxy flare up

USD Flows: Core durables solid, earnings and Fed more in focus

July 27, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Durables solid on the core despite the headline miss
Focus more on further earnings this week and then especially the Fed
USD proving reluctant to cede ground on defensiveness into the latter

EUR/USD, SEK Flows: Dollar marks lower, eyes negotiations for traction

July 27, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Equities, oil, dollar all mark to the w/e news, but look next to assess longevity

USD Flows: Semiconductor break more in focus than the data

July 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

Semiconductor break today the main interest rather than data
Sets the tone into next week, watching wider volatility performance

USD Flows: Tech risk weaker; eying any late USD/JPY pre-holiday adjustment

July 17, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Tech stocks under a bit of pressure, not yet spilling into FX
USD/JPY trades tiny bar (doji) into holiday, could still see some squaring yet

USD Flows: Trump backs off fringe demands; safe, normal shipping still the big question

July 14, 2026 3:46 PM UTC

Backs away from more fringe, rhetorical remarks on 20% fee 
Remaining question is still how viable safe and normal volume passage is going to be in current stalemate 

USD Flows: CPI miss takes heat off, but too early to call more than respite

July 14, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Big downside CPI miss takes the heat off but current escalation offers less respite
EUR/USD resets to range upside from downside

USD Flows: blockade and taking a cut; messy situation gets messier

July 13, 2026 2:48 PM UTC

Battle of the grift, as Trump talks blockade and 20% protection fee

USD Flows - mkt unwilling to commit amid broader escalation, hugs familiar figures

July 13, 2026 6:34 AM UTC

Battle becoming more entrenched over Strait control
Mkt unwilling to commit and be whipsawed again though
Minor USD haven skew but sticks to the familiar figures, risks do seem to be growing

USD flows: Net firm batch of US data, if no knock-outs

June 25, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Strong batch of data overall, though avoids any 'headline shocks'
Mkt consolidates its recent repositioning

USD flows: OPEC pressure cooker

June 25, 2026 8:14 AM UTC

Reuters sources have Iraq making OPEC threats of quota
Iran closures have exerted critical financial and fiscal stress on the region
That creates a pressure cooker environment for (hopefully) post war supply and cooperation

USD flows: More focus on equities than data, dollar firm either way

June 23, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

Focus more on session's equity action than data
PMIs firmer all the same, if with some details in the breakdown

USD flows: Still at or through various resistance levels

June 23, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

USD still on the rise vs majors with various resistance levels being tested or cleared

USD flows: Lots to digest from the Fed press conference

June 17, 2026 7:09 PM UTC

Taskforces announced, with inflation and balance sheet ones notable
Dots described as pencilled forecasts, and set to be reviewed
Warsh gives mixed view on policy tightness 
Curve pivot flattens but balance sheet review should be watched closely

USD flows: Fed projections nuanced, but bolsters dollar

June 17, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

Dots shift, albeit quite as hawkish in composition as they may seem on first look
Show more a strongly divided Fed, and one than can still hold if data cools 'post Iran'
Nonetheless, median and to a lesser extent the breakdown partly valid the market shift
Dollar firms and continues dalliance with retu

USD flows: Market still skeptical

June 11, 2026 6:20 PM UTC

The USD saw a sharp dip on Trump's cancellation of tonight's scheduled bombing of Iran though did little more than erase the day's gains. 

USD flows: Trumped, but largely ignored

June 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Latest Trump broadside overshadows ECB; diminishing returns in FX

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: BoE TSC cementing summer re-pricing

May 20, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Comments so far from BoE TSC largely go with the grain of the summer wait and see
Mkt has priced back its overly aggressive hike odds for June-July

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY flows: A compelling argument for the BoJ to surprise with aggressive Operation Twist

May 20, 2026 8:53 AM UTC

Argument that the current BoJ mix is not being rewarded. Indeed, its being punished as trilemma narrative takes hold
A riff on 'Operation Twist' offers a strong way forward - hike policy rates while reduce the aggressive taper
Could actually be both macro supportive and market savvy
Best version of the

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: 20yr auction in focus Wed as UST losing hold

May 19, 2026 2:29 PM UTC

Event focus on Wednesday, including Nvidia earnings and US20yr auction
Latter comes as US long end is losing its grip of key ceiling levels, risking extension of selloff

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Still a nervy mkt, UK data soft

May 19, 2026 7:01 AM UTC

UK data overall soft, supports a cautious approach from the BoE
Even with the more positive, but erratic, Iran comments, mkt still edgy
Dual focus on the recent tech pullback, and upcoming earnings 

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell

May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers