USD, AUD/USD flows: Dollar/risk still on a firm n/t footing
Dollar/risk still breaking firmer near-term amid some position adjustments, chart breaks, and market Fed re-pricing
A more vulnerable near-term tone to risk still prevailing on the back of the recent US Fed re-pricing, commodity pullbacks and some hype-launch- unwind in SpaceX back towards its initial price, playing to some generalised profit-taking in high big tech widely. The Nikkei ends down over 3% and the KOSPI down more than 9%, with Nasdaq future almost -2%. Copper also off 2% while oil continues to drop back. Net result still dollar/risk better bid side and AUD/USD in particular breaking its next range support to be stretching towards 0.6950. USD/JPY remains a game of chicken with the Katayama-Bessent call name-dropped without revealing anything substantive. Recent action does seem speculative and there is plenty of scope for a step-adjustment down in the pair at some stage, but for now the market remains in the same regime and narrative. It might take a real spike in still subdued volatility as a trigger to shake things out.