USD flows: Taking stock of current levels vs pre-Iran
Quick stock check of current pricing vs pre-Iran
Gold still the biggest loser; SEK the highest FX beta
Euro not that far off, low volatility; USD/JPY could correct off 160 handle if stars align
Stepping back and taking stock, it's worth referencing where current pricing stands right now compared to 10th Feb, if we mark that as the denominator for 'pre-Iran' (as talks broke down). Gold remains the biggest net changer still down just under 20%, but it has been bouncing. It would need to be back above 4450, so another 100pts, to be regaining the broken 200dma (that had held all the way back to 2024) and so giving some technical momentum to those that follow this (the break below cemented the mood consensus-bearish from consensus-bullish).
Elsewhere, SEK as high beta is still down 4% and is where the better reactiveness has been seen so far as a result, so long as broader risk trade can is able to sustain its recover as well (i.e. also driven by tech).
JPY in theory has some additional logic behind a pullback if everything aligns (i.e. the market also takes the Fed and BoJ meetings as helpful and/or MoF decides to show itself at some point amid more stretched spec shorts). Euro is only slightly off pre-territory, would be very much back to it on any slight extension of the 1.16 regain, and spec positioning is also pretty balanced - volatility here remains low.