Published: 2026-10-21T06:42:06.000Z
EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows - UK CPI upside cementing likely Nov hike
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UK CPI upside cements likely Nov hike, 90%+ priced in
GBP remains on a firm trend, if n/t oversold on the cross
UK inflation comes in firmer than expected at 3.5% from 3.1% vs 3.4% market and running a good ½ pp above its previous projections. Core also up to 2.8% (mkt 2.7%). With the headline seen rising above 4% on energy ahead, data further cements the prospects of a November rate hike although with that over 90% priced in now the additional impact today is limited and GBP just consolidating yesterday’s gains.
While a little stretched n/t on the cross, GBP remains on a firm trend vs both euro and dollar on the combination of relative risk re-pricing and dollar correction. Above 1.34 resistance, latter has 1.3450/1.3475 area, while EUR/GBP has got a bit oversold at the 0.8375 fib but has medium-term lower range levels below further out.