EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - quiet, dollar still rebalancing firmer into event risk

Dollar retaining its slightly firmer start to the week into the run of central bank meetings through a pretty quiet Asia session for news and action, most pairs remaining in correction mode.

France also remains currently off the worst, with OAT-bund having tested back to 150~ support if bouncing from there, some ¼ pp off the recent wides.

EUR/USD tests back to 1.115 congestion, key support today currently holding ahead of increased pressure for full return to 1.1115/1.11. USD/JPY also looking to re-test the recent supply at 158/+, previous balance area. Cable likewise playing along, and all very much consistent with some re-balancing into event risk. 

Fed meeting is still a long shot for surprise, even with valid reasons for one, with market pricing in just 10% chances of a hike and Warsh tending to go with the low-information no-forward-guidance line in the pass months. Short-end has seen some recent yield bounce from the larger correction in recent days, with 2s now slowing into 4.75% from the 4.6% lows, with pressure currently off France, tech, and through the supply. 

ECB though particularly interesting for the presser this week, to see if a somewhat more dovish slant to the framing is crystallising even with energy remaining high, on the back of recent financial condition wobbles.

Data today is unlikely to offer too much input, even if durable goods from the US later is seen remaining firm.